Business

Cubrir o No Cubrir

The CFO of a fictional Spanish aluminium extruder (EUR 420 million of sales, 55% invoiced in US dollars, metal bought in dollars at the London Metal Exchange price) must decide whether, what and how to hedge while a tight loan covenant and a new press depend on the answer.

4 rounds Executive

Preview

About this simulation

The CFO of a fictional Spanish aluminium extruder (EUR 420 million of sales, 55% invoiced in US dollars, metal bought in dollars at the London Metal Exchange price) must decide whether, what and how to hedge while a tight loan covenant and a new press depend on the answer.

Decision 1 (January 2027): the objective of the policy (protect the budget rate, a profit-centre treasury or the probability of distress and lost investment), the exposure that is measured (gross dollar sales, the net exposure after dollar metal purchases, or signed orders) and the dollar hedge (none, a leveraged zero-cost bank structure, or forwards).

Decision 2 (July 2027), after the dollar falls: aluminium swaps, no metal hedge or a year of stock; rolling the hedges at the bank proposal, unwinding to take the gain, or keeping the policy ratios; and the accounting of the derivatives. Decision 3 (January 2028): the new press, the size of the 2028 programme (including a 150% forward sale booked as a hedge) and the banks and collateral.

Decision 4 (July 2028), after the hedges lose money: what the board sees, the customer contracts and the 2029 policy.

The model is deterministic, half-year by half-year from 2027 to a 2029 projection: net exposures, hedge ratios, the risk of half-year EBITDA and a normal probability of breaking the covenant follow from the decisions, with expected distress costs, a tax convexity cost and the value of the press, measured against a company that never hedges; a scripted market path shows the realised result of the derivatives.

The score combines the quality of each decision with value, breach probability, reported earnings volatility and the trust of the banks and the board, and is capped when a decision breaks accounting rules (derivatives kept off the books, a bet booked as a hedge). Inspired by published research on corporate hedging. Spanish (primary, Spain) and English.

Who it is for

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 4 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • El objetivo de la política
  • La exposición que se mide
  • La cobertura del dólar
  • El aluminio
  • Las coberturas del dólar que vencen
  • La contabilidad de los derivados
  • La prensa nueva
  • El programa de 2028
  • Los bancos de las coberturas
  • Lo que ve el consejo

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Decisión 1 · La política
  • Decisión 2 · El dólar cae
  • Decisión 3 · La prensa y el banco
  • Decisión 4 · Lo que ve el consejo

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