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The CFO of a fictional Spanish aluminium extruder (EUR 420 million of sales, 55% invoiced in US dollars, metal bought in dollars at the London Metal Exchange price) must decide whether, what and how to hedge while a tight loan covenant and a new press depend on the answer.

4 rondas Ejecutivo

Vista previa

Sobre la simulación

The CFO of a fictional Spanish aluminium extruder (EUR 420 million of sales, 55% invoiced in US dollars, metal bought in dollars at the London Metal Exchange price) must decide whether, what and how to hedge while a tight loan covenant and a new press depend on the answer.

Decision 1 (January 2027): the objective of the policy (protect the budget rate, a profit-centre treasury or the probability of distress and lost investment), the exposure that is measured (gross dollar sales, the net exposure after dollar metal purchases, or signed orders) and the dollar hedge (none, a leveraged zero-cost bank structure, or forwards).

Decision 2 (July 2027), after the dollar falls: aluminium swaps, no metal hedge or a year of stock; rolling the hedges at the bank proposal, unwinding to take the gain, or keeping the policy ratios; and the accounting of the derivatives. Decision 3 (January 2028): the new press, the size of the 2028 programme (including a 150% forward sale booked as a hedge) and the banks and collateral.

Decision 4 (July 2028), after the hedges lose money: what the board sees, the customer contracts and the 2029 policy.

The model is deterministic, half-year by half-year from 2027 to a 2029 projection: net exposures, hedge ratios, the risk of half-year EBITDA and a normal probability of breaking the covenant follow from the decisions, with expected distress costs, a tax convexity cost and the value of the press, measured against a company that never hedges; a scripted market path shows the realised result of the derivatives.

The score combines the quality of each decision with value, breach probability, reported earnings volatility and the trust of the banks and the board, and is capped when a decision breaks accounting rules (derivatives kept off the books, a bet booked as a hedge). Inspired by published research on corporate hedging. Spanish (primary, Spain) and English.

Para quién es

Una simulación avanzada para participantes acostumbrados a trabajar con los principales marcos y dilemas de la materia, pensada para formación de directivos y profesionales con experiencia.

Cómo funciona una sesión

  1. El docente crea una sesión desde el panel de Eureka e invita a los participantes.
  2. Los participantes juegan 4 rondas. En cada una envían sus decisiones y la simulación calcula los resultados.
  3. El docente sigue el progreso y los resultados de cada participante desde el panel, y usa los resultados de la clase para el debriefing.

Decisiones que toman los participantes

Las decisiones que toman los participantes durante la simulación:

  • El objetivo de la política
  • La exposición que se mide
  • La cobertura del dólar
  • El aluminio
  • Las coberturas del dólar que vencen
  • La contabilidad de los derivados
  • La prensa nueva
  • El programa de 2028
  • Los bancos de las coberturas
  • Lo que ve el consejo

Qué siguen los participantes

Lo que los participantes siguen en pantalla a medida que avanzan las rondas:

  • Decisión 1 · La política
  • Decisión 2 · El dólar cae
  • Decisión 3 · La prensa y el banco
  • Decisión 4 · Lo que ve el consejo

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