Estrategia y dirección · Estrategia corporativa

The Acquisition Call — Buy, Ally, or Build Under the Synergy Clock

A four-round executive-strategy simulation set inside Atlântica Digital SGPS, a Lisbon-headquartered B2B logistics-software group (EUR 180M ARR, 22% EBITDA, EUR 70M cash, 1,150 staff).

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Sobre la simulación

A four-round executive-strategy simulation set inside Atlântica Digital SGPS, a Lisbon-headquartered B2B logistics-software group (EUR 180M ARR, 22% EBITDA, EUR 70M cash, 1,150 staff).

A competitor's AI demand-forecasting launch has just signed two of Atlântica's prospects and put three of its top-ten customers — EUR 16M of at-risk ARR — on a renewal cliff that closes when the AI module must ship by 31 May 2027 (~12 months).

The board hands corporate development three mutually exclusive paths to close the gap and attaches a hard condition: deliver at least EUR 12M of run-rate synergy within 24 months or the capital is clawed back.

Playing the corporate-development team (Head of Corp Dev, CFO, COO, Head of Integration, Head of People & Culture), you (1) choose the growth mode — acquire NordCast AS for EUR 95M, ally with it for EUR 25M, or build organically for EUR 35M — weighed against speed to the cliff, cost, control of IP, and reversibility; (2) build a disciplined synergy bridge and respond to a diligence finding, testing realized synergy against the EUR 12M floor before paying a 9.5x-revenue control premium; (3) set integration depth on the preservation-to-absorption spectrum and a cultural-fit/retention plan, reconciling the tension that deep integration accelerates synergy but triggers the 30–50% engineer attrition that destroys it; and (4) eighteen months in, absorb a live stress event (the lead architect resigns / the rival bids for the partner) and defend the whole call to the board.

Built on Gomes's M&A and strategic-agility research, Haspeslagh & Jemison on integration depth, and the make–ally–buy and winner's-curse frameworks, the math rewards mode fit to the cliff, disciplined synergy valuation, calibrated integration depth, and agility under shock — and punishes the five classic errors: acquiring for boldness, building past the cliff, overpaying without a synergy bridge, over-integrating and losing the talent, and over-preserving and forfeiting the synergy.

Final KPIs track Synergy Captured vs. the EUR 12M floor, Talent Retained, ARR Saved, and Deal NPV.

Para quién es

Una simulación avanzada para participantes acostumbrados a trabajar con los principales marcos y dilemas de la materia, pensada para formación de directivos y profesionales con experiencia.

Cómo funciona una sesión

  1. El docente crea una sesión desde el panel de Eureka e invita a los participantes.
  2. Los participantes juegan 4 rondas. En cada una envían sus decisiones y la simulación calcula los resultados.
  3. El docente sigue el progreso y los resultados de cada participante desde el panel, y usa los resultados de la clase para el debriefing.

Decisiones que toman los participantes

Las decisiones que toman los participantes durante la simulación:

  • Three mutually exclusive paths to close the AI-forecasting gap. Which growth mode do you commit to?
  • Name the SINGLE factor that decides the mode against the make–ally–buy logic
  • How much weight do you put on reversibility — keeping the option to switch modes if the environment shifts?
  • Conviction in the chosen mode under uncertainty (0 = highly tentative, 100 = all-in, no hedge)
  • Cost synergy — shared infra, consolidated functions, R&D overlap (€M / 24 months)
  • Diligence finding: NordCast's lead architect built 40% of the model and has no lock-in. Your response?
  • Your go / adjust / walk recommendation on the price vs. the €12M floor
  • Talent-retention & cultural-fit plan for the 60 research-led engineers (the asset you bought)
  • The integration mechanism that actually CAPTURES the synergy without breaking the culture
  • Integration timeline aggressiveness (0 = patient multi-year, 100 = compress everything into 6 months)

Qué siguen los participantes

Lo que los participantes siguen en pantalla a medida que avanzan las rondas:

  • Synergy Captured vs. €12M Floor · Talent Retained · ARR Saved

Temas que cubre

Diseñada para asignaturas de Estrategia corporativa.

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