Bayesian Wildcat — Pozo Marisol-1
Encode a wildcat-well prior, price three pre-drill information options against EVPI/EVII, run three sequential Bayesian updates as seismic, mud-log…
About this simulation
MBA-band decision-analysis simulation set at NovaSano Therapeutics. Across six weeks of Investment Committee deliberation on lead oncology asset NS-204, learners encode Phase III probabilities (Spetzler-Stael von Holstein protocol), build the decision tree, roll back expected value (Howard-Matheson), and recommend Go-Standard, Go-Pursue-AA, Partner or No-Go against shifting competitor and FDA signals.
Practices probability encoding, EV rollback, EVPI, sensitivity analysis, and disciplined defense of a recommendation.
Who it is for
An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.
How a session runs
- The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
- Participants play 6 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
- The simulation can be run in English, Español.
- The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.