Bayesian Wildcat — Pozo Marisol-1
Encode a wildcat-well prior, price three pre-drill information options against EVPI/EVII, run three sequential Bayesian updates as seismic, mud-log…
A 15-minute pre-mortem simulation that teaches decision-makers to imagine failure before commitment. Across 3 rounds, learners draft a failure obituary for a real decision, rank failure modes by probability and cost, and convert top risks into concrete adjustments — based on Klein 1998.
An intermediate simulation for participants who already know the core concepts of the subject, designed for master's and MBA programmes.
The decisions participants make during the simulation:
What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:
Designed for courses in Decision Sciences.
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