Quantitative Methods · Decision Sciences

SecondOrderThinking — And Then What?

Train the reflex of asking what happens after the thing you want happens. Map first, second, and third-order consequences, stress-test the weakest chain, install tripwires, and commit with discipline.

3 rounds MBA & Masters English, Español
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Who it is for

An intermediate simulation for participants who already know the core concepts of the subject, designed for master's and MBA programmes.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 3 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results. The first round opens with: Map the first three orders.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • Decision type
  • First-order outcome (the obvious win, 0–90 days)
  • How many second-order effects can you name? (target 3–5)
  • Did you push the weakest chain to third order?
  • Probability the chain unfolds as you imagine
  • Cost if it lands (money, team, reputation)
  • Detection lag — how soon would you know?
  • Reversal cost if you have to undo it
  • Did you install a tripwire and a calendared review?
  • Does the decision still look right at third order?

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Decision Discipline Trajectory

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Decision Sciences.

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