Decision Trees in Practice — A Drug-Launch Go/No-Go

MBA-band decision-analysis simulation set at NovaSano Therapeutics. Across six weeks of Investment Committee deliberation on lead oncology asset NS-204, learners encode Phase III probabilities (Spetzler-Stael von Holstein protocol), build the decision tree, roll back expected value (Howard-Matheson), and recommend Go-Standard, Go-Pursue-AA, Partner or No-Go against shifting competitor and FDA signals. Practices probability encoding, EV rollback, EVPI, sensitivity analysis, and disciplined defense of a recommendation.