El Pronóstico
Simulation exploring demand forecasting failures, the bullwhip effect, S&OP process design, and demand sensing technology in a Honduran wholesale…
A 90-minute, 4-round Express simulation from the seat of a third-generation owner who chairs the board's finance and dividend committee of a family firm, on capital allocation when the family needs liquidity and the company needs growth: replacing a fixed dividend nobody chose with a written rule - a share of the
A 90-minute, 4-round Express simulation from the seat of a third-generation owner who chairs the board's finance and dividend committee of a family firm, on capital allocation when the family needs liquidity and the company needs growth: replacing a fixed dividend nobody chose with a written rule - a share of the profit, a floor and the condition that suspends it; deciding reinvestment against the cost of capital inside a capital plan; an orderly liquidity window for owners who want to sell, at a formula price with a minority discount and first refusal, paid only from free cash and closed by its own rule when debt rises; preparing the households that live on the dividend; holding the rule in a bad year; and funding a growth project without a leverage spiral or losing control.
Nerea Altuna Urrestilla (fictional) is a director of Forjas Altuna, a fictional steel forger in Bergara (Gipuzkoa) owned by three family branches and eleven shareholders; the board and the family council ask her for a capital-allocation policy that holds from 2027 to 2030.
You decide how the dividend is set and how reinvestment is decided, what is offered to the owners who want to sell and what is done about the households that live on the dividend, the dividend in a bad year and what happens to two requests to sell, and how a new forging line is funded and how capital allocation is reported to the owners.
Scored on the company financed to grow, the chance that the policy holds, the owners' value protected, your time and energy, the bank's and management's confidence, the cohesion of the branches, and open risk; two shortcuts (company money lent to one branch to buy another's shares, a bad debt's write-down postponed to pay the usual dividend) come back and cap the score. Spanish primary, English included.
Una simulación de nivel intermedio para participantes que ya conocen los conceptos básicos de la materia, pensada para programas de máster y MBA.
Las decisiones que toman los participantes durante la simulación:
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