Decide Under Risk — Lutèce Mobility's €90M SiC Bet
A four-round, advanced decision-sciences simulation set inside the investment committee of Lutèce Mobility SA, a Lyon-based mid-cap industrial-tech…
About this simulation
Junior quantitative analysts at Helio Verde Beverages build a robust 12-month SARIMA-with-break-dummy forecasting framework on real monthly Cola sales (2018-2025, 96 obs), confront the April-2024 structural break, compare against Holt-Winters, VAR, Prophet and LSTM, and learn the M-competition empirical regularity that simple combination methods quietly win.
Eight Box-Jenkins decision rounds drive MAPE from the 18% Excel baseline toward the 11% combination floor, with 80%/95% prediction intervals and explicit calibration audit.
Who it is for
An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.
How a session runs
- The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
- Participants play 8 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
- The simulation can be run in English, Español.
- The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.