PreMortem — Fail the Decision Before You Make It
A 15-minute pre-mortem simulation that teaches decision-makers to imagine failure before commitment.
A 90-minute, 4-round advanced Express simulation on running the financial side of a Brazilian grain farm through one crop year: the safra budget and the bank's stress test, pricing soy and corn before harvest with forward contracts and B3 futures and options, funding the inputs through the input retailer's credit
A 90-minute, 4-round advanced Express simulation on running the financial side of a Brazilian grain farm through one crop year: the safra budget and the bank's stress test, pricing soy and corn before harvest with forward contracts and B3 futures and options, funding the inputs through the input retailer's credit, barter (insumo-por-grao), credito rural or a CPR, matching commitments to production under yield risk, the ZARC window and crop insurance, liquidity between harvests and margin calls, and honouring contracts in a short crop, for business, agronomy, economics and agribusiness programmes and for farm managers, originators and rural-credit teams.
Agropecuaria Tres Buritis (a fictional 5,000-hectare soybean and safrinha-corn farm in Sorriso, Mato Grosso): as its new administrative and financial manager you take the 2026/27 crop from the October budget to the July corn harvest.
Round by round you choose how to price the soy and fund the corn inputs, how much corn to plant and insure and how to price it, how to answer an April drought and fund the cash gap to July, and how to settle the harvest against the contracts and plan the next season.
Each round is scored on the crop year projected with what is known that Monday: the projected result, the margin in the bank's stress test, liquidity, net debt and a confidence index of the buyers, the bank, the retailer and the family; selling pledged grain to a spot buyer or planting on land under an IBAMA embargo caps the score. Portuguese (Brazil) with Spanish and English.
An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.
The decisions participants make during the simulation:
What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:
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