Quantitative Methods · Decision Sciences

BayesianUpdating — What Should Actually Change My Mind?

A 3-round decision-science simulation where the learner takes a live belief under evidentiary pressure, expresses it as a probability, scores incoming evidence on directionality, diagnosticity, independence and reliability, applies a proportional update, and installs a decision threshold plus a scheduled review

3 rounds MBA & Masters English, Español

Preview

About this simulation

A 3-round decision-science simulation where the learner takes a live belief under evidentiary pressure, expresses it as a probability, scores incoming evidence on directionality, diagnosticity, independence and reliability, applies a proportional update, and installs a decision threshold plus a scheduled review cadence. Trains calibrated belief revision — neither too slow nor too fast.

Who it is for

An intermediate simulation for participants who already know the core concepts of the subject, designed for master's and MBA programmes.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 3 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • Belief Domain
  • Prior, expressed as a probability (0–100%)
  • Form of the prior
  • Freshness of the evidence base
  • How confident were you when you formed it? (1–10)
  • Independent signals on the table
  • Diagnosticity of the strongest signal
  • Net direction of evidence
  • Source reliability
  • Failure mode you are most at risk of

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Your Inputs
  • Belief Trajectory
  • Calibration vs Discipline

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Decision Sciences.

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