Quantitative Methods · Decision Sciences

CalibratedConfidence — Bet Before You Speak

Replace vague confidence with numbers. Place probability bets on your beliefs, name falsifiers, and discover your personal over-calling or under-calling pattern across a forecasting log.

10 rounds MBA & Masters English, Español
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Preview

Who it is for

An intermediate simulation for participants who already know the core concepts of the subject, designed for master's and MBA programmes.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 10 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • Confidence (probability the belief is true)
  • Falsifier — what observation would lower this to 30%?
  • Bet size (£) — how much would you stake on being right?

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Place Your Bet
  • Forecasting Log

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Decision Sciences.

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