Power the Grid — Renewable Auctions & Tariff Reform in Zambeka

A four-round, advanced power-sector reform and regulation simulation set inside the Zambeka Energy Regulation Authority (ZERA), the independent economic regulator of the fictional Republic of Zambeka. A multi-year drought has cut firm hydro output 35%, forcing 6–8 hours of daily load-shedding; national electricity access is stuck at 43%, and the state utility Zambeka Power Company (ZPC) is technically insolvent — average tariffs of ZMK 0.92/kWh recover only 71% of the cost of supply, leaving a 29% cost-reflectivity gap plugged by a ZMK 4.1 billion Treasury subsidy. A binding Cabinet directive, 'Light up Zambeka', orders ZERA to add 600 MW of new generation in 24 months and raise access to 60% within five years — without lifting the ZMK 4.1bn subsidy ceiling. Playing the regulator, you must publish a procurement-and-tariff plan within 120 days or lose your auction mandate. Round 1: diagnose the true binding constraint, recognising (per Eberhard's power-sector research) that it is tariff and creditworthiness, not generation — cheap renewable power is available only if the offtaker can credibly pay — and decide whether to treat the three reform levers as one interdependent system or as independent workstreams. Round 2: design the first competitive renewable-energy auction — volume to tender, reserve (ceiling) price (set too low and it under-subscribes, the most common African auction failure; too high and ratepayers overpay), credit-enhancement package (none, escrow, or a partial risk guarantee that collapses the payment-risk premium), bidder qualification, and local-content load — and project the clearing price, which equals build cost plus local-content load plus the uncovered risk premium. Round 3: sequence a cost-reflective tariff path (a single 30% shock that invites a politically driven rollback versus a phased glide-path with a lifeline block), split the access budget between grid extension at ZMK 9,500/connection and off-grid/mini-grids at ZMK 3,200 using least-cost electrification logic, and choose cost-plus versus performance-based regulation for ZPC. Round 4: defend the integrated plan to a Cabinet/donor panel and absorb a live shock — a politically connected shell bidder, consumer protests forcing a rollback, or a worsening drought — without abandoning the reform, then stake the programme on the right metric. The math wires the concept's numbers reference card, facilitator decision tree and five common errors into sticky run-defining penalty flags: a reserve set as a political statement fails the auction and caps delivered capacity; skipping credit enhancement reprices every bid; a one-step tariff shock triggers rollback; grid-only access reaches fewer households; awarding the shell delivers no power; and breaching the subsidy ceiling fails the directive — so no headline anti-pattern can reach the top 'Grid Powered' verdict. Final KPIs track delivered capacity (MW vs 600), national access (% toward 60), projected clearing price (ZMK/kWh), subsidy drawn (vs the ZMK 4.1bn ceiling) and programme credibility.