Entrepreneurship & Innovation · Innovation Management

The Innovation Bet — Cobalt Coatings' Renewal Portfolio

A four-round, advanced corporate-strategy and innovation-portfolio simulation set inside Cobalt Coatings NV, a Brussels specialty-coatings maker (€420M revenue, 16% EBITDA, 1,180 staff).

4 rounds Executive English, Español

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About this simulation

A four-round, advanced corporate-strategy and innovation-portfolio simulation set inside Cobalt Coatings NV, a Brussels specialty-coatings maker (€420M revenue, 16% EBITDA, 1,180 staff).

78% of revenue (€328M) still comes from solvent-based chemistries declining 4–6% a year under REACH/VOC pressure, and the board has issued a strategic-renewal mandate: at least 25% of revenue from products or models that did not exist in 2025, by 2031.

As the new General Manager you have one annual planning cycle and a €21M innovation envelope to place the bets that decide whether Cobalt renews itself or manages a graceful decline. Round 1 — diagnose the Three-Horizons portfolio (11 projects, 92% incremental) and quantify the renewal gap.

Round 2 — choose build-vs-open-innovation for a bio-resin platform: build in-house (€9M/yr, 45–55% success, 4+ years), co-develop with the NovaResin spin-off (€6M/yr, TRL 6, ~2 years saved, cedes 40% of margin), or take a 30% equity option (€18M) — and set the governance and downside protection.

Round 3 — allocate the €21M envelope across sustaining commitments (€8M, partly cuttable), incremental water-based defence (€4M, 85% success, €14M NPV), the disruptive bet, and a discretionary reserve, deciding what to cut, whether to stage-gate the bet with kill points, and how it closes the renewal gap.

Round 4 — defend the portfolio to the board: justify the biggest bet and its kill criteria, model the cannibalisation of the solvent core, and commit to 12-month milestones.

The math applies Three Horizons, the Innovator's Dilemma, real-options/stage-gating, ambidexterity and open-innovation governance, and punishes the five classic errors: funding the wish list beyond €21M, hero-bet concentration that starves core defence, comfort-zone incrementalism that misses the mandate, an ungoverned NovaResin partnership exposed to a competitor acquisition, and ignoring the cannibalisation that erodes the cash engine funding the renewal.

Final KPIs track renewal coverage toward 2031, blended portfolio expected value (€M), core-business resilience and resource efficiency against the envelope.

Who it is for

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 4 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • How do you read the pipeline against the Three Horizons?
  • Quantify the renewal gap the board mandate creates.
  • Which of the €8M committed sustaining projects are genuinely strategic?
  • State the central tension in one sentence.
  • The bio-resin platform: build, partner, or hybrid?
  • Open-innovation governance — if you involve NovaResin, on what terms?
  • Stress-test: if NovaResin is acquired by a competitor or the platform fails technically, what protects you?
  • Allocate the €21M envelope. Sustaining and the disruptive bet share one pool — you cannot fund everything.
  • Sustaining commitments — €8M baseline, partly cuttable (€M)
  • Incremental water-based defence — 85% success, 18 months, €14M NPV (€M)

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Renewal Coverage, Portfolio Value & Core Resilience

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Innovation Management.

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