Finance & Banking · Risk Management

Tail-Risk Stress Tests — Beyond Reverse Stress Testing

Patricia Solano-Vargas's CRO task force at Petrolia has 90 minutes to diagnose stress-testing maturity, design three named tail-risk scenarios (operational, sovereign, macro), and defend them to a Board Risk Committee Chair who has read Taleb.

3 rounds Executive English, Español

Preview

About this simulation

Patricia Solano-Vargas's CRO task force at Petrolia has 90 minutes to diagnose stress-testing maturity, design three named tail-risk scenarios (operational, sovereign, macro), and defend them to a Board Risk Committee Chair who has read Taleb. Three rounds: Diagnose → Design → Defend. Closes MBA Track 3F — Enterprise Risk Management.

Who it is for

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 3 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results. The first round opens with: Diagnostic Decisions.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • Honest maturity assessment
  • Tail-distribution assumption (CVaR translation)
  • Methodology commitment to the Board
  • Pre-positioning investment ($M)
  • Antifragile capital headroom (% of Tier-1 reserved against unmodelled tails)
  • Mercedes Q1 · Which scenario is the existential one?
  • Mercedes Q · Which scenario is most likely to underestimate the actual loss?
  • Mercedes synthesis · Single most-important 12-month structural change
  • Mercedes Q2 · Tail you are NOT modelling (Taleb question)

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • What is Petrolia actually running?
  • Board Confidence vs Capital at Risk

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Risk Management.

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