Revisar o Defender

The new director of strategy of a fictional Spanish maker of electric cargo bikes must publish, and revise each quarter in public, the probability that 2028 demand reaches the high scenario that would justify a second assembly line.

Quarter 1: the forecast published (the chief executive plan, a reference class, or a single number), who reviews it (the sales team, a consultancy hired to validate it, or a challenge network) and the tooling (order it, pay for a slot, or announce the line).

Quarter 2: how the forecast is revised (defend the plan, follow the headline, or update in proportion), what happens to a dissenting analyst memo and whether to run a cheap test (a survey or a paid pilot). Quarter 3: revision again, how the committee forms its number (the chief executive speaks first or sets it, or independent estimates) and kill and scale criteria.

Quarter 4: revision, the line (full, modular or cancel) and the forecast filed with a public grant application. Evidence enters through fixed likelihood ratios; the reading depends on who reviews it, and a Bayesian benchmark from the reference class is shown each quarter. The model is deterministic, evaluated on the decisions taken so far.

The score combines the quality of each decision with the calibration gap, dissent kept alive, the Brier score once the outcome is revealed and the five-year value of the decisions taken on the forecast, and is capped when the grant application carries an inflated forecast that conceals the order book. Inspired by published research on rethinking and forecasting. Spanish (primary, peninsular register) and English.

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.