Quantitative Methods · Decision & Optimization

Monte Carlo for Capital Decisions — NS-204 Capacity Build

Probabilistic forecasting on the NS-204 capacity-build authorisation at NovaSano Therapeutics.

3 rounds Executive English, Español

Preview

About this simulation

Probabilistic forecasting on the NS-204 capacity-build authorisation at NovaSano Therapeutics. Three rounds — Diagnose, Design, Defend — walk participants through framing the decision under multi-axis uncertainty, building a defensible Monte Carlo with input-distribution choices and Iman-Conover correlation imposition, and answering the audit-committee chair's certifying-workflow question.

Graduate / MBA quantitative-methods band; anchor sim of Track 13B.

Who it is for

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 3 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • 1. Decision frame
  • 2. Treatment of uncertainty axes
  • 3. Decision criterion
  • 4. Aleatoric vs epistemic uncertainty
  • 1. Demand distribution family
  • 2. Stranding-recovery distribution
  • 3. Sample size per scale
  • 4. Include EVPI table in chart pack?
  • 1. Recommended capacity scale
  • 2. Cecilia at minute 12 — what is the audit committee certifying?

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Decision & Optimization.

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