Emergencia Declarada

The disaster risk management coordinator of a fictional Colombian municipality (about 31,000 inhabitants) runs the first 72 hours after a night-time flash flood: about 4,200 people affected, about 140 people trapped, cut off or swept away, five response agencies, two boats, a helicopter with six flight hours and a second flood possible from a natural dam upstream.

Decision 1: how the response is organised (each agency on its own, the mayor from his office, or the municipal risk council with a unified command post and a single incident commander); the declaration of public calamity (wait, the mayor alone, or with the council as the law requires); the first priority (the town, search and rescue, or wait for dawn).

Decision 2: how the scarce boats, helicopter and excavator are allocated (whoever asks first, by risk to life from the needs map, or where the cameras are); water, food and shelter; donations and volunteers.

Decision 3: what the 900 people downstream are told about a 40% chance of a second flood (wait for the sirens, reassure, or a preventive evacuation that states what is and is not known); who speaks; what is said about the people unaccounted for (nothing, a false no-missing statement, or one cross-checked list).

Decision 4: how the missing supplies are contracted (ordinary tender, documented emergency direct contracting, or one contract with a connected supplier including unrelated works); the register of people affected; how outside support is requested.

The model is deterministic and hour by hour: coordination, priorities and asset allocation set the share of stranded people reached each hour against an hourly hazard; relief logistics set the share of people with water, food and shelter; trust sets compliance with the evacuation.

The score combines the quality of each decision with people not reached in time, needs met, public trust and traceability, and is capped when a decision breaks the law (a false public statement about the missing, emergency contracting outside the emergency). Spanish (primary, Colombia) and English.

An intermediate simulation for participants who already know the core concepts of the subject, designed for master's and MBA programmes.