Cuando las Tendencias Chocan

The strategy director of a fictional Spanish dairy and nutrition group builds the 2027-2036 plan.

Four trends are certain - ageing, the growth of emerging-market middle classes, digital technology and climate change - but the value lies where they collide, so the plan is judged at once in three futures, each born from a collision: connected longevity (ageing and technology), middle classes in the heat (emerging middle classes and climate) and carbon costs (climate and technology).

Session 1: how she reads the trends (four straight lines, crossing them two by two, or copying competitors), the consumer she designs for (the young, a separate brand for the over-65s, or life stages and multigenerational households) and how many futures she plans against.

Session 2: three bets, one per collision - a senior plant or a digital subscription pilot, a Kenyan acquisition or a joint venture with an option to rise, complying later or a precision-fermentation alliance. Session 3: the 400 million euro capital budget, the workforce and how to reach the Kenyan consumer. Session 4: what the board sees, how the plan is reviewed and who owns each collision.

The model is deterministic: each option has a fixed value in each future, some pairs of options add or remove value together, and the reading of the collisions and of the signals multiplies later moves.

The score combines the quality of each decision with the value in the worst future, the average value, the capital sunk into single-future bets and the months needed to pivot, and is capped when a decision breaks the rules (a carbon-neutral claim based on offsets, infant formula promoted to mothers). Inspired by published research on global trends and strategy under uncertainty. Spanish (primary, Spain) and English.

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.