The Power of Yes — Commit Atlântico's €220M Digital Bet

A four-round, advanced strategic-leadership simulation set inside Atlântico Distribuição S.A., a Portuguese grocery and general-merchandise retailer (240 supermarkets, 18 hypermarkets, €3.1B revenue, 3.4% EBIT, #3 grocer at 14% share). On 2 June 2026 the Chair tables a €220M three-year digital-and-format transformation envelope and demands a committed strategic direction within the first 100 days: "This company has perfected the art of the maybe. We hired you for the power of yes." Share is bleeding 1.1 points a year to discounters and quick-commerce; on trend Atlântico slips below #4 within 30 months, where supplier terms and scale economics deteriorate. E-commerce is stuck at 3% versus leaders at 9–11% and the online channel burns €18M a year. The envelope funds roughly TWO of four candidate bets — a full omnichannel/fulfilment rebuild (~€120–130M, strong upside or a €100M+ write-down), a hard-discount banner (~€70M), a data/loyalty + AI personalisation platform (~€50M), and quick-commerce by partner or build (€40–90M) — under a 2.5x net-debt/EBITDA covenant. Playing the new CEO, you (1) frame the real strategic question before choosing tactics, diagnosing this as a digital-relevance problem rather than re-running the culture of prudence; (2) commit the bet — allocate the €220M to a focused pair, choose a commitment mode for each (full build, partnership, staged real-option pilot, or pass), and name explicitly what you decline; (3) sequence the moves with gated tranches, kill-criteria and a covenant-aware cash trajectory, without letting staging degenerate into a disguised maybe; and (4) defend the yes to a split board — two bold, two prudent, a Chair who wants a defensible decision, and a 35% family block — converting dissent into an aligned, executable mandate. The math operationalises Santos Silva's "power of yes" and Porter/Rumelt's strategy-as-trade-off: spreading thinly across all four bets, waiting one more year, a bold bet with no diagnosis, pilots with no scale trigger or kill-criteria, and steamrolling the prudent faction all measurably underperform, while a focused, diagnosed, gated, board-aligned commitment scores best. Final KPIs track Strategic Clarity, Competitive Position, Board Mandate, and Capital Committed against the €220M cap and the 2.5x covenant.