Optimize the Chain — SaharaFresh's Service Collapse

A four-round, advanced operations and supply-chain simulation set in SaharaFresh Distribution Ltd., a fictional Lagos-headquartered third-party FMCG distributor: ₦96bn revenue, a 4.5% EBIT margin, four distribution centres (Lagos, Ibadan, Abuja, Onitsha) and 1,400 SKUs sold into open markets, kiosks and modern trade across Nigeria.

Its two largest principals, together 41% of revenue, measure on-time-in-full (OTIF) on their own lines: it stands at 78% against a 95% contract, and a clause lets them appoint a parallel distributor if it stays below 90% for a second quarter.

Logistics cost runs at 16.7% of revenue, including generator power, checkpoints and levies, empty return legs and emergency transfers between DCs, against an illustrative Nigerian peer figure of about 13%. Working capital is tight: ₦0.8bn of undrawn bank line, with overdraft at 32% a year.

Playing the Head of Operations, students (1) spend 20 analyst-days on a diagnosis across lanes, demand behaviour and field ride-alongs, and decide what to do with emergency transfers and sub-wholesaler credit in the first 30 days; (2) choose a footprint, a delivery window into the open markets and a truck-fill target for the quarter the clause is measured on; (3) set safety stock for the Christmas peak, deciding the basis for segmentation, where buffers sit, two service levels and the response to a port clearing delay; and (4) choose who moves stock to the markets in 2027, how that partner is paid and held, what to invest and what goes in the 90-day plan for the principals.

Each round asks for a forecast, compared with the result. Conditions vary by session (diesel price, port delays, a disruption at the Lagos DC, rail reliability), and several consequences arrive one or two rounds after the decision that caused them.

All figures are modelled and illustrative. KPIs: OTIF (%), logistics cost (% of revenue), inventory turns on cost of goods, cash headroom (₦bn) and EBIT impact (₦bn); the debrief reports an outcome and a process score, the turning point of the run and questions for class discussion. English and Spanish.

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.