Signal to Service

You are the CMO of Lumina Media Group, a Milan-based music-and-podcast streaming company sitting on one of Italy's richest first-party behavioural datasets — yet less than 8% of it is activated. A global rival has just cut its price to €4.99 and your monthly churn has spiked from 2.6% to 4.1%. Finance has ruled out matching on price. The board hands you exactly €6.0M and one mandate: turn Lumina's proprietary signals into a single data-driven service innovation that bends churn and proves the data-to-service thesis — within 90 days, with a two-quarter proof window. Across four rounds you (1) audit eleven candidate signal streams and decide which carry genuine customer-value affordance versus mere abundance, (2) commit to exactly ONE service bet — rejecting the others on explicit grounds, (3) allocate the hard €6.0M cap across data engineering, service build, and go-to-market, balancing the full data-to-value chain, and (4) absorb a mid-launch shock and defend a recovery plan. The engine encodes Troilo's affordance-over-abundance thesis, Service-Dominant Logic, and real-options budgeting under a hard cap: chasing the highest-coverage signal, hedging the bet, starving the launch, or defining value as a feature list rather than a job-to-be-done will all visibly underperform. Debrief KPIs: service-innovation ROI, customer value-add score, payback period, adoption rate, and arrested churn.