El Actuario de Precios

A Mexican motor insurer with 180,000 private-car policies must reprice its book while a digital competitor, which prices on driving behaviour measured by an app, takes its most prudent drivers.

Over four years - the entrant arrives, the price response, the adverse-selection signal and a parts-inflation shock, and the model in production - the participant, as pricing actuary, chooses the data used to segment risk (the traditional tariff, a voluntary app programme or a mandatory telematics device), the rate level, how to validate a price change (an A/B elasticity test or a competitor quote survey), how to reprice (flat, by risk level, or by willingness to pay), the cap on renewal increases, the new-business channel (agents, comparison sites or direct), the tariff correction, the claims-inflation assumption, the answer to a competitor price cut, the rating model, in-year monitoring and growth.

The model is deterministic: retention and new business respond to price relative to the competition by risk class, and claims follow the true risk of whoever stays. The score combines the quality of each decision with the result for the year and the size of the adequately priced book, and is capped for charging loyal clients more than equivalent new clients or for losing more than the board tolerates.

Spanish (primary) and English.

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.