Cycle Strategist — Aceros del Plata Through the Cycle

A four-round, advanced corporate-strategy simulation set inside Aceros del Plata S.A., a mid-sized Argentine long-steel producer (one EAF mini-mill, two rolling lines, 600,000 t nameplate, ~78% utilization, 1,150 employees, AR$540,000M ≈ US$450M 2025 revenue, 16% EBITDA margin, 12% ROIC, 1.4x net leverage, 22% domestic share behind a ~45% incumbent). It is May 2026 and you are the VP Strategy. Two years of strong construction demand and a stabilizing peso have pushed effective utilization to ~92% at peak, and the board wants to approve a US$140M (AR$168,000M) third rolling line and furnace upgrade that would lift capacity 40%. But the market-intelligence team is flashing red: cement dispatches down two quarters, central-bank tightening, a sovereign spread out 250bps, and leading indicators pointing to a downturn within 12–18 months. The new line takes 24 months to commission — straight into the projected trough. Funding it all with US$ debt pushes net leverage toward ~3.4x on PEAK EBITDA, against a 3.5x covenant — and to ~5.0x on trough EBITDA, a breach. Across four rounds you (1) read the cycle and build a base/downside/upside scenario set with a probability and timing for the next downturn; (2) time the capacity investment — approve now, defer to the trough, phase it, or decline — modelling ROIC and downside survival probability against the 24-month lag and irreversibility; (3) set the financial posture — financing mix, a net-leverage ceiling judged on TROUGH not peak EBITDA, a liquidity buffer sized to the downside, and FX hedging on US$-priced CapEx against AR$ revenues; and (4) make the competitive move — match the incumbent's expansion, hold and defend share on cost/service, or preserve dry powder to acquire the distressed rival (≈US$60M) at the bottom. The math rewards cycle-aware timing, trough-tested leverage with a real liquidity buffer, hedged FX, and a pre-committed counter-cyclical option — and punishes the five classic errors: building full capacity at the peak, extrapolating peak demand as trend, sizing debt to peak EBITDA into a covenant breach, hoarding cash and forfeiting the acquisition, and leaving US$ CapEx unhedged against AR$ cash flows. Final KPIs track ROIC, Downside Survival Probability, Trough Net Leverage vs the 3.5x covenant, and Strategic Position. Built on Roberto Vassolo's through-the-cycle strategy in emerging markets.