Operations & Supply Chain · Project Management

Riesgos en Obra Civil — Sobrecostos y Demoras

Civil-works pre-construction risk simulation.

4 rounds Executive English, Español
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About this simulation

Civil-works pre-construction risk simulation. Quantify the risk on a 28-km road rehabilitation contract in Boyacá: cluster the risk register, run Monte Carlo, size the contingency at the right percentile, choose risk responses (CAR insurance, forwards, contract clauses, claims posture), and defend the bid envelope against a sceptical commercial director. Bilingual ES/EN delivery for UNAD ECACEN.

Who it is for

An advanced simulation for participants used to working with the main frameworks and trade-offs of the subject, designed for executive education and experienced professionals.

How a session runs

  1. The instructor creates a session from the Eureka dashboard and invites the participants.
  2. Participants play 4 rounds. In each one they submit their decisions and the simulation calculates the results.
  3. The simulation can be run in English, Español.
  4. The instructor follows each participant's progress and results from the dashboard, and uses the class results for the debrief.

Decisions participants make

The decisions participants make during the simulation:

  • Number of risk clusters (raw register has 47 lines)
  • Model correlation chains (rain → landslide → slip → multa)?
  • Bid contingency percentile (visible in price)
  • Management reserve percentile (internal, sits above bid)
  • CAR insurance with extended geotechnical coverage (COP 285M premium)
  • Lock asphalt-cement forward contract (+4% over spot)
  • Negotiate revisión de precios coverage of materials basket
  • Negotiate multa por mora (per day)
  • Claims posture with the interventoría (45% historical approval)
  • Last-minute adjustment to bid contingency (percentage points)

What participants track

What participants follow on screen as the rounds go by:

  • Round-by-Round Trail
  • Bid Envelope vs. True Risk Curve

Subjects covered

Designed for courses in Project Management.

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