You are Nicolás Herrera-Pombo, 41, Director of Corporate Development at Grupo Savia, a diversified Colombian group. The CEO has read the same headlines you have, and he wants the group in rooftop solar. Your job is to tell him whether a booming market is a good business.
The situation
Grupo Savia is a COP 3.2-trillion group with arms in agribusiness, retail real estate and consumer logistics. The board has asked Corporate Development for an entry recommendation on rooftop-solar installation — putting solar panels on the roofs of Colombian homes and businesses. The numbers in the deck are the kind that end a debate: installations growing more than 40% a year, the market expected to triple by 2030, an energy transition with policy behind it.
The CEO is enthusiastic; two board members already talk as if the decision is made. But growth is not the question you were hired to answer. The question is whether a typical competitor in this industry gets to keep any of the value the boom creates. You have the investment-committee meeting in two weeks, and you intend to walk in with a Five Forces analysis, not a growth chart.