You are Octavio Carranza-Mendoza, 43, Director Comercial of CarBajío, a tier-2 auto-components supplier in Querétaro. In two weeks you sit across from Holzmann-Schwarz, the German OEM that buys 38% of your output. The renewal frame contract is on the agenda. Their procurement lead, Stefan Eppinger, has already sent the opening shot: 9.2% price reduction or no renewal.
The situation
CarBajío sells precision-machined transmission components to three Mexican OEM plants of Holzmann-Schwarz. Current 3-year frame: MXN 1,640M/year revenue, 11.2% EBITDA. Eppinger's opening: 9.2% unit-price cut over three years. If you give it straight, your EBITDA collapses to 3.4% — below your bank covenants. If you walk, you lose 38% of your topline and your two production cells in Cuautitlán go dark.
You have spent eleven nights reading Eppinger's last three negotiations with other tier-2 suppliers. Two settled at 4–5% with payment-term extensions. One walked and was replaced. None of them traded the issues you think are tradable. Your CEO, Doña Mariana Ávila, expects a recommendation Friday: how do you approach the room?