You are Esperanza Quintana-Solórzano, 44, Director of Aulas que Crecen, a Guatemala-City-based education non-profit running an after-school numeracy program in 92 schools across the Western Highlands. Your board meets in three weeks to approve next year's measurement plan. You have USD 180,000 in the budget for it. You can fund exactly one approach.
The situation
Aulas que Crecen reaches 8,400 children, ages 8–11, with a 90-minute after-school numeracy block four times per week. Your annual budget is USD 1.9M. You have a board commitment for the next 18 months from three funders: Fundación Tigo Guatemala, a U.S. family foundation, and an European education-impact fund that is your largest single source.
The European fund's next disbursement is in 11 months. Their renewal committee will ask three questions: are children learning more? is the program reaching the hardest-to-reach children? and what would not have happened without you? Your existing measurement is light — pre/post numeracy scores collected by your own teaching staff. The board has been clear: "we need a real measurement plan, not another year of pre/post averages." You have three serious options on the table and one budget envelope.