You are Inês Vilar, Regional General Manager for East Africa at Atlântico Foods, a Lisbon food group. Six months after the Nairobi launch, sales are running at 38% of plan, and the board has given you 90 days to present a corrected model for Kenya or the programme stops. The first thing the board will read is your explanation of what went wrong.
The situation
Atlântico makes and distributes packaged dairy, juices and shelf-stable nutrition: EUR 410 million of revenue, a 12% EBITDA margin, 1,900 employees, four plants in Iberia and one in Morocco. It built its business on one capability: an ambient-and-chilled distribution network that reaches supermarkets efficiently and reliably. The board approved US$18 million over three years to enter Sub-Saharan Africa, starting with Kenya.
Kenya has 55 million people and grows at about 5% a year, but its trade looks nothing like Iberia's. 68% of grocery volume moves through dukas — small independent kiosks — and open-air markets, not through the supermarket chains the plan counted on. Only two cities have an unbroken cold chain, and shoppers fill the basket for the day, not for the week.
The January close is plain. The annualised run-rate is US$3.4 million against a Year-1 target of US$9.0 million: a gap of US$5.6 million. Atlântico's own trucks serve 11% of the target outlets. Chilled products, 40% of the range, spoil at 22% between plant and shelf, against 3% in Iberia. Of 24 local hires, only 3 have category or modern-trade experience, and five expatriates fill the gap at US$220,000 each a year.
And the plan is yours. You recommended entering with the European playbook, the expatriate postings carry your signature, and your bonus moves with the programme. Two partners are waiting for an answer — an exclusive distributor and a joint-venture candidate that a South African competitor is also talking to — but before you choose a partner or spend a dollar, your board paper has to open with your reading of what happened.