You are Marisol Zegarra Fuentes, head of the Central Infrastructure Regulatory Agency (ARIC) in Lima. Four projects ask for S/ 5,100 million of public co-financing and you have S/ 2,400 million; before you hand out a single sol you have to decide on what basis you rank the portfolio.
The situation
ARIC appraises, tenders and supervises transport concessions on the Lima – Junín – Huánuco corridor. It was created to fix a pattern its own files document: contracts signed on optimistic demand forecasts that come back years later as costly amendments. You negotiated two of them yourself from the state's side, and both are still open under your signature. This cycle's envelope, S/ 2,400 million, is fixed by a multilateral concessional line and does not grow. You have twelve weeks, until Friday, 26 June 2026.
The flagship toll road asks for S/ 1,800 million, offers investors an internal rate of return of 14.2% — the highest — and an economic-social return of 12%; it serves the richest sub-region, and its traffic forecast is 30% above the independent study ARIC commissioned. The urban tram asks for S/ 1,300 million, with 10.8% for investors and 16% social. The logistics terminal asks for S/ 800 million, with 12.1% and 11%, and is the only one that requests no guarantee at all.
The fourth is a bridge with its access roads for an isolated province. It has the highest social return in the portfolio, 22%, and the lowest financial return, 8.1%, against a 10.5% hurdle that private capital will not lower. It asks for S/ 1,200 million. Three of the four ask for a minimum-revenue guarantee, which costs nothing on the day it is signed and becomes a Treasury liability if real demand falls short.
On Wednesday you asked your team for a sheet with the four projects ranked by social return in one column and by investor return in the other. The two columns do not match in a single position.