You're Verónica Iturralde-Saldarriaga, 42, Head of Sales & Operations at Esencia Andina, a Peruvian personal-care distributor (S/950M, 320 employees, plant in Lurín, 14,500 points of sale). A four-week promotion at one chain made your factory order swing for twelve weeks. The SVP of Supply Chain wants a position paper in eight days.
The situation
Esencia Andina distributes shampoo, soap, toothpaste, and deodorant — its own Brisa brand plus three multinationals under contract — through Plaza Vea, Tottus, Wong, Metro, and ~13,800 traditional-channel bodegas. The flagship product is Brisa Coca 750ml: ~18% of sales, ~22% of operating margin.
In March, Plaza Vea ran a four-week "Mes Familia" promotion: Brisa Coca 750ml at S/14.90 instead of S/19.50 (−24%). Consumer sell-out rose 22% above baseline during those four weeks and returned to baseline afterward. But at your Lurín plant, the factory order you triggered swung between +37% and −41% above baseline across twelve weeks, not four. The packaging supplier (Envases Lima SAC) called in a rage: you'd asked them for double in April and half in May. The plant manager requested three shifts for April and then sent 18 temp workers home in May.