Eureka Case 25 min Finance

Betting on the Winter

You are Núria Bonet, general manager of Estació de Serrat Blanc, a ski resort in the Vall de Ròdol, Andorra. It is 2 October 2026. The board has just approved €6.2 million of investment and expects you to close the year with €4.5 million of EBITDA. Before 15 October you must decide where that money goes, without yet knowing what kind of winter is coming.

The situation

The 2025/26 season closed with 412,000 skier-days against the 508,000 budgeted, the worst figure since 2011. Serrat Blanc took €24.6 million in revenue and earned €4.1 million of EBITDA. It has 62 kilometres of piste between 1,780 and 2,640 metres, eleven lifts and 420 snow guns covering just over a third of the domain. They draw on a reservoir holding water for eleven days of intensive snowmaking, and it does not refill during the season.

The business lives on a few days: 71% of the year's revenue arrives in 96 of them, and a day of full closure at Christmas costs about €185,000 that never comes back. The reliable snow line has risen some 180 metres in a decade, and two of the last three Christmases opened with less than half the domain. On top of that, 63% of skiers arrive by road from Catalonia and Occitania: a storm that closes the access road empties the resort even when the pistes are perfect.

Three destinations compete for the money. Extending snowmaking towards mid-mountain makes snow where it no longer falls, but draws on the same reservoir. Replacing the north-sector chairlift with a detachable one carries more people per hour, but adds not one metre of snow. Enlarging the car park and road access puts more skiers at the gate, but is useless with the domain closed. You can split the money however you like, leave any of them at zero or return to the board what you do not commit. On the same day you also set the season-pass price, which cannot be changed afterwards, and how many seasonal staff you hire. The resort starts with €2.9 million in cash and €310,000 a month of fixed cost outside the season.

Your job in this case: look at which days the year depends on, test in a simple model how much each euro protects in different kinds of winter, and decide how to split the €6.2 million before the season pass goes on sale.

The decision

How do you split the €6.2 million before the winter?

  • A · Snow first: €3.2M into snowmaking
  • B · New chairlift: €4.0M to the north sector
  • C · Road first: €3.2M into access

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