Eureka Case 30 min Undergrad

An Anomalous Reading

You are Bea Lekuona-Etxabe, 47, plant director at Petrolíticos del Nervión, a mid-size polyolefins producer in Zierbena (Bizkaia). It is Tuesday evening. You have 72 hours to commit on the Friday hot-startup of the rebuilt HDPE Line 3 — or to defer it.

The situation

HDPE Line 3 has been down 14 months for a €38M rebuild — new reactor agitator drive, refurbished extruder train, fully replaced control system. The hot-startup is scheduled for Friday 09:00. The CFO has already pre-marketed €11M of Q3 volume against the line. Sister plants in Tarragona and Sines completed similar rebuilds in the last 18 months; both started up without serious incident.

Yesterday Eider Garmendia, a third-year mechanical engineer, posted on the pre-startup channel that the new agitator motor read 12% above baseline on a 6-hour idle run. The 11-person Startup Readiness Committee discussed the reading this morning and voted 11–0 to proceed. The OEM's standard tolerance is ±15%; the reading is within spec but on the high side. Eider abstained from the vote and asked you privately for "five minutes before Friday."

Your job in this case: name the cognitive biases that are quietly shaping this decision, run a quick downside-and-confidence model, and commit to one of three actions before tomorrow night's executive call with HQ in Madrid.

The decision

What do you tell Madrid tomorrow night?

  • A · Greenlight Friday as planned
  • B · Defer 5 days for a focused diagnostic
  • C · Hard pause + independent OEM review

The rest of the case is locked

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