You are Mauricio Lascuráin-Quintanar, 58, CEO of Cementos Norte, a Monterrey-headquartered cement multinational. The board has asked you to commit by year-end to a new net-zero corporate strategy aligned with SBTi 1.5°C. You have to walk into the 9 October board meeting with one trajectory chosen, one capex envelope sized, and one story you can defend to bondholders, customers and your operations leaders.
The situation
Cementos Norte operates 11 plants — six in Mexico, two in Colombia, one in Peru, one in the United States (Texas), and one in Spain (Cádiz). Revenue ~USD 11B, EBITDA ~USD 2.6B, net debt ~USD 4.1B. The Cádiz plant is the EU exposure: CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) phases in by 2027; carbon-cost pass-through to Spanish and French construction customers is partial and contested.
The current climate plan (set in 2022) commits to 25% reduction in CO₂ intensity by 2030 against a 2020 baseline, and net-zero by 2050. SBTi tightened its sector pathway in 2024: for cement, 1.5°C-aligned now means roughly 42% by 2030 and ~55% by 2035 in absolute terms. The current plan is no longer SBTi-aligned, and your two largest ESG-mandated bondholders (NN Investment Partners and PGGM, ~USD 1.4B of issuance combined) have signalled they may not roll Cementos Norte's 2027 maturities without an SBTi-aligned plan.
The technology stack on the table: clinker substitution (calcined clay, slag, fly ash) — proven, ~18-22% achievable; alternative fuels (biomass, RDF) — proven where municipal partnerships exist, ~8-14%; energy efficiency (kiln upgrades, waste-heat recovery) — proven, ~7-10%; CCUS (carbon capture & storage) — pilot-stage, USD 0.9-1.4B capex per plant, technology risk material; hydrogen and electrification of calcination — early R&D, no commercial deployment expected before 2035. The hard fact: ~60% of cement emissions come from process chemistry, not energy. There is no decarbonisation path that avoids either substitution or capture.